Award-Winning Fantasy Football Advice

The Giants selected Purdue RB Tyrone Tracy in Round 5 of the NFL Draft. This prospect fired us up in the pre-draft process. One reason why: Tracy’s background as a WR. His college career began as a WR at Iowa, where he’d make an impact in 2019 following a 2018 redshirt (36 catches, 589 yards, 3 TDs). A pandemic-shortened 2020 slowed progress, and then Tracy’s role dipped in 2021. Tracy transferred to Purdue ahead of the 2022 season in search of more touches. Instead, he finished 5th on the team in catches; 6th in receiving yards. 2023 turned up a position switch – one that changed the trajectory of his pro prospects. “I was a little skeptical at first,” Tracy said of the move. “I didn’t know if he [new HC Ryan Walters] was trying to say I’m not a good receiver, or ‘Hey, man, we actually think you can do this.’ I kind of just prayed about it. I talked to my mom and dad about it. And my dad was basically saying, ‘I know you’ve been doing this your whole life.’” Tracy saw only 114 carries last fall, but he excelled in the limited opportunities. Among 157 RBs with 100+ attempts, he ranked top-20 in yards per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and PFF Elusive Rating. The 5’11, 209-pounder popped in 8 rushing scores. Tracy’s game needs refinement, but his raw athleticism reminded us of Antonio Gibson coming out of Memphis. His stock only increased at the NFL Combine with a 9.78 Relative Athletic Score. The main negative here surround’s Tracy’s advanced age – he’ll turn 25 in November. With only 148 career carries, though, he enters the league without much wear and tear. Getting Round 5 draft capital is a small win for Tracy. And the landing spot is good. The Giants’ RB depth chart is topped by Devin Singletary, who signed a modest three-year, $16.5 million deal in free agency. There’s room for Tracy to carve out a role here – particularly in the passing game – as early as this season.

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The Saints added South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Rattler was a five-star recruit and the No. 1 pro-style QB in the 2019 class. But he failed to live up to those expectations across five college seasons. Rattler redshirted behind Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma in 2019 before taking over as the Sooners’ starter in 2020. He finished that season with 3,031 passing yards and 28 TDs vs. seven INTs on a 67.5% completion rate and 9.6 yards per attempt. His production was down the following year before getting benched for Caleb Williams. Rattler then transferred to South Carolina, where he totaled 6,212 passing yards on a 67.5% completion rate and 7.8 yards per attempt over the past two seasons. He ranked 78th among 93 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ 2022 passing grades and 50th out of 95 last year. An aggressive passer with good anticipation and plenty of arm strength, Rattler can make every throw. His decision-making and timing need improvement, though. And Rattler has little experience working under center, with 85% of his college snaps coming from shotgun. He’ll open his career behind QB Derek Carr in New Orleans. Carr is signed through 2026 but carries huge cap hits the next two years. We’ll see if Rattler can develop into his successor. He’ll be worth considering in Round 3 or 4 of superflex rookie drafts.

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The Broncos selected Notre Dame RB Audric Estime in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. A four-star prospect, Estime chose Notre Dame over others like Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia, and Nebraska. After a quiet freshman season behind Kyren Williams, the New York native split carries in 2022. The result? Team-highs in yards (920), yards per carry (5.9), and TDs (11). His production then rose across the board last fall. He flashed top-notch power with 4.27 yards after contact per attempt and tallied a strong Elusive Rating from PFF (126.5). The raw numbers turned up several career highs (209 carries, 1,341 yards, 18 TDs). While Estime caught all 26 of his college targets, we don’t forecast much of a receiving ceiling in the NFL. He also lacks the top-end speed to rip off explosives at the next level. Estime’s 4.71 forty-time at the NFL Combine was disappointing, but his Relative Athletic Score of 6.58 shows the strength of his complete profile. At 221 pounds, he tallied an 86th-percentile vertical and an 87th-percentile broad jump. Also note: Estime’s ten-yard split placed him in the 53rd percentile. The rookie joins a crowded backfield in Denver alongside Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine – although Williams and Perine are both scheduled to be free agents next offseason.

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The 49ers selected Arizona WR Jacob Cowing late in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. Cowing split his five college seasons at UTEP and Arizona. He tallied 31-550-3 as a UTEP freshman before leading the program in all major categories in 2020 (41-691-3). Cowing, a primary slot, saw his production hit new highs in 2021. Fueled by 111 targets, he notched 69-1,361-7. Despite a 15.2-yard aDOT, Cowing still tallied a solid 7.0 yards after catch per reception. He also turned heads with 3.82 yards per route run. In 2022, Cowing transferred to Arizona to live near his son. The move paid off on the field, with Cowing seeing huge target counts (121 and 122) over his final two seasons. He again excelled as a run-after-catch asset. And there’s no questioning his total production. Consider this: In 2023, Cowing ranked second in the nation in yards per team pass attempt. New HC Jedd Fisch used him on shorter routes, leading to aDOTs below 9.0 yards. He gives off some Tank Dell vibes on tape, and that’s backed up by the testing (4.38 forty-time). Of course, WRs of this size (5’8, 168 lbs.) are true outliers. And in the NFL, Cowing won’t project for high volume – particularly once you factor in his 1st percentile wingspan. Cowing joins fellow rookie WR Ricky Pearsall in San Francisco. We’re still waiting to see if WR Brandon Aiyuk or WR Deebo Samuel will be traded. Regardless, Cowing isn’t a great bet for 2024 fantasy value.

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The Jets took Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen in Round 4 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Allen is the youngest player in this entire draft class, turning just 20 back in January. He exploded as a 17-year-old true freshman in 2021, running for 1,268 yards and 12 TDs on 6.8 yards per carry. But by most measures, that was his best season at Wisconsin. Allen topped 1,200 rushing yards again in 2022, but his yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and missed tackles forced per attempt all sunk from the previous season. Then his usage and production took a hit in a pass-heavier Wisconsin offense last year. Allen carried 181 times for 984 yards (5.4 YPC) and 12 TDs. He at least rebounded in yards after contact per attempt, ranking 29th among 157 qualifiers. But Allen ranked just 97th among those 157 RBs with a career-worst 78.6 Pro Football Focus rushing grade. The burly 6’1, 235-pounder runs with good vision and has better long speed than you’d expect. But he doesn’t always play to his size and doesn’t possess much wiggle. It’s also worth noting that Allen suffered shoulder, right leg, and left ankle injuries, plus a concussion, during his three years at Wisconsin. Allen joins a Jets backfield that will be dominated by Breece Hall for the foreseeable future. The rookie will duke it out with 2023 fifth-round pick Israel Abanikanda for scraps.

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The Chiefs spent a late fourth-round pick on TE Jared Wiley from TCU. Wiley played mostly QB in high school and caught just 19 passes across three college seasons at Texas. He transferred to TCU in 2022 and won a starting job, finishing with 24 grabs for 245 yards, and 4 TDs. Wiley notched career highs across the board in 2023: a team-high 47 catches, 520 yards, and a team-high 8 TDs. The 6’6, 249-pounder impressed with a 9.30 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine, although he doesn’t look that athletic on tape. Wiley tends to win with physicality and ball skills. He had just one drop on 120 career targets. If Wiley is going to be a fantasy asset, it’ll likely come through TD production. Going to Kansas City certainly helps that chance, though he'll need to wait for Travis Kelce and Noah Gray to get out of the way.

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The 49ers selected Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. Guerendo battled hamstring and foot injuries at Wisconsin. When healthy, he sat behind Jonathan Taylor and fellow rookie Braelon Allen. So, after five years in Madison (and only 99 carries), Guerendo transferred to Lousiville in 2023. He shared the backfield with Jawhar Jordan, who actually led the team with 181 carries (vs. 132 for Guerendo). The duo posted nearly identical receiving lines: 22-234-0 for Guerendo and 21-246-1 for Jordan. Guerendo wins with an impressive combo of size, speed, and athleticism. The 221-pounder brings return value, too, with 714 career kick return yards. He was the talk of the NFL Combine after posting a ridiculous all-around workout. Consider this: Guerendo’s 4.33 forty time, 129" broad jump, and 41.5" vertical jump all ranked in the 95th percentile or better among Combine RBs since 1999. Now, he doesn’t always play up to those testing numbers. But that potential remains as he gains more reps. In San Francisco, Guerendo will be battling for scraps behind Christian McCaffrey. It’s an awful spot for the rookie’s short-term fantasy value. Landing with HC Kyle Shanahan helps the long-term outlook. McCaffrey turns 28 in June and is signed through 2025.

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The Bills selected Kentucky RB Ray Davis in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. A three-star recruit out of San Francisco, Davis opted to play at Temple over Navy and Kent State. He made a true-freshman impact for the Owls with 193-936-8. Then, after a pandemic-shortened 2020, Davis transferred to Vanderbilt. A toe injury that required surgery sapped nine games in 2021, but we’d finally see that freshman-year form come 2022. Davis delivered 1,042 yards on a carry share of nearly 68%. Instead of declaring for the draft last winter, Davis transferred once more to Kentucky. His decision clearly paid off. The 5’8, 208-pounder ran for 1,129 yards and 14 TDs on 5.7 yards per carry. He added 33 catches, 323 yards, and seven more scores. Among 33 RBs with 190+ carries, Davis ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt and tied for seventh in PFF rushing grade. A bowling ball of a back, Davis’ power and contact balance should translate to the pro game. He also brings a notable pass-catching resume with 94 career catches. The drawback here is Davis’ age; he’ll turn 25 in November. His size should play well in Buffalo, which leaned on James Cook as its 2023 lead back. Bet on Cook maintaining the clear receiving lead while ceding some rushing work to the rookie. QB Josh Allen, of course, cuts into the available short-yardage TDs. This is ultimately a solid landing for Davis vs. pre-draft expectations. He was the eighth RB off the board and finds opportunity with an offense that ran more after switching OCs in 2023. See where Davis settles in our dynasty rookie rankings.

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The Buccaneers drafted Oregon RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Irving earned 133 carries as a freshman at Minnesota, but left after that season. He transferred to Oregon in 2022 and immediately earned a 1A backfield role. That year, the 192-pounder showed surprising power with 4.36 yards after contact per attempt. Nearly 22% of his carries went for 10+ yards en route to a career-best 6.8 yards per carry. Irving struggled with drops, but that issue proved less worrisome in 2023. Irving even led the nation in receptions by a RB (55). He showed scheme versatility by lining up out wide on 13.2% of his passing snaps. He played the slot nearly 10% of the time. On the ground, Irving remained productive while running both gap and zone concepts. The junior posted career highs in carries (186), yards (1,192), and TDs (11). By mid-winter, it looked like Irving had a chance to be among the first couple of RBs selected. Then came a horrid NFL Combine that included a 2.25 Relative Athletic Score. Irving posted a 26th-percentile broad jump (9'7) and 4th-percentile vertical (29.5 inches). He came off the board sixth among RBs, though, and lands in a Tampa Bay backfield that presents opportunity. Rachaad White enjoyed a breakout 2023 but did so primarily thanks to touch volume. He ranked sixth-lowest among qualifiers in rush yards over expected per attempt, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Among 63 RBs with at least 60 carries, White ranked just 48th in yards after contact per attempt (according to Pro Football Focus). He even checked in just 27th in PFF receiving grade among 61 RBs with at least 20 targets. Expect Irving to siphon some work from White right away, with a chance to keep earning more. This is a good landing spot for Irving's dynasty outlook. We'll see where he lands in rookie ADP.

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The Eagles selected Clemson RB Will Shipley in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. A five-star recruit and the No. 2 RB in the 2021 recruiting class, Shipley had a productive three-year career at Clemson. He totaled 2,748 rushing yards, 602 receiving yards, and 33 TDs. He’s coming off a disappointing 2023 junior campaign, though, running for just 827 yards on 5.0 yards per carry. And Shipley never fared well in advanced metrics, ranking outside the top-65 RBs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating each of the last three years. That includes a 51.5 Elusive Rating this past season – 118th among 159 qualifiers. Shipley is a bit undersized at 206 pounds with just average power and long speed. Durability is a concern, too. Shipley suffered left leg and foot injuries in 2021, a concussion in 2022, and a left knee injury in 2023. He’s at his best in the passing game, where he flashes reliable hands, good vision, and plenty of make-you-miss ability. Shipley is unlikely to be a high-volume ball carrier as a pro, but his pass-catching ability could certainly make him an asset in PPR fantasy leagues. He joins an Eagles backfield that will be dominated by Saquon Barkley for the foreseeable future. Barkley is signed through the 2026 season. Shipley will battle Kenneth Gainwell for snaps behind Barkley this year.

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